Incorporating Collateral Information Using an Adaptive Management Framework for the Regulation of Transgenic Crops

Sections of this material may be reproduced for personal and not-for profit use without the express written permission of but with acknowledgment to IFPRI. To reproduce the material contained herein for profit or commercial use requires express written permission. To obtain permission, contact the Communications Division at [email protected]. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank Michael McCarthy for his comments on this paper and for providing us with access to his data on the Powerful Owl. Aldois Gisler (Chief Actuary Winterthur Insurance, Switzerland) provided useful background on the use of these methods in the insurance industry. ii ABSTRACT A lack of data often makes biological management decisions difficult and has been an area of contention in the debate over the approval of transgenic crops. Our knowledge of natural systems is limited and our ability to gain additional information, quickly and effectively, is often handicapped by statistical complexity. To adequately cope with this requires new approaches and models that integrate decision-making and management. This paper describes one possible approach to the integration of decision-making and management, which may have application for the regulatory approval of transgenic crops. In many situations countries wishing to approve transgenic crops will have limited data on the environmental performance of the crop. The approach outlined in this paper looks at how related information, possibly collected from other countries, might be used to help inform decisions about the approval of transgenic crops. This is done within an integrated decision-making and management framework.